Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 5: The 1st Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 5: The 1st Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

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When asking if the #1 pick in the NFL draft is worth it, we have to look at the surrounding value in that particular class. The 2026 NFL Draft looks to shape up narratively with previous years, as Indiana quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to be taken first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.  Our series proceeds in ascending order, with the third installment focused on the third pick.

Take a look at Part One of this series for the point system and my introduction:

Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 1: The 5th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

(Link to Part 2)  Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 2: The 4th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

(Link to Part 3) Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 3: The 3rd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

(Link to Part 4) Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 4: The 2nd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Notable 1st Overall Picks in The NFL Draft

When looking back at former number one picks, the difference in prospect doesn’t range very much. It is always a quarterback taken, unless it is a partially weak class for the position, in which either the best pass rusher or, in extreme cases, the best offensive lineman is taken first. Assuming Fernando Mendoza is taken first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026 NFL Draft, he would be the seventh of the last 11 picks to be former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks. What does this say about the draft process? See Heisman, pick Heisman? 

Pretty much. But how often does that work? Taking the guy with the most prestigious award in college athletics isn’t always all that it shapes out to be.

Highs: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns (2017)

Without Myles Garrett, the Cleveland Browns’ defense in most seasons would struggle to avoid being last. He possesses everything you’d want in someone on the edge. Size. Speed. Strength. All off the charts. For a bit of context, the only seasons since he was drafted in which he didn’t make an All-Pro team are the ones in which he plays fewer than 10 games (it’s only happened twice). Not only has he made five All-Pro First Teams in the last six seasons, but he has multiple defensive player of the year awards and is in sole possession of the single-season sack record.

His resume, not even a decade into his career, puts him in a class that is only rivaled by the best to ever play the game. Luckily for the Browns, Garrett is perfectly content in Cleveland. Having signed a monster four-year, $160 million extension in March 2026 that made him the highest-paid non-QB ever, he can choose his own destiny. Whether it be racking up gaudy career numbers on uncompetitive Browns teams, or demanding a trade to a team that has a chance to win a playoff game sometime this decade. Myles Garrett is most likely going to go down as the definitive pass rusher of his generation. 

Joe Burrow, QB Cincinnati Bengals (2020)

At LSU, Joe Burrow had the most dominant quarterback season in college football history. Going a perfect 15-0 and winning the national championship, Burrow threw for 5671 yards and 60 touchdowns, placing fourth in yards and second in touchdowns in a single season in college football history. After his record-breaking Heisman Trophy-winning season, teams were salivating over Burrow in the draft. The Cincinnati Bengals took him first in the 2020 NFL Draft, and it was clear that they had nailed the pick. Through the first ten games of his career, Burrow looked the part in many ways, even though the team record did not reflect it in the slightest. Suffering a torn ACL in his tenth game is where the real story of his career would begin, marking the start of his constant battle to remain healthy. 

The Cincinnati offensive line has been the bane of Burrow’s existence since he came into the NFL. In the three seasons he’s played more than 10 games, Burrow finished no lower than sixth in the league in times sacked. His 2021 season is part of why he’s one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, despite leading the league in times sacked (55) in that very year. Burrow’s former LSU teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, was taken fifth overall in 2021, and the two clicked as they had never spent time apart. Throwing for over 4,600 yards and winning Comeback Player of the Year, the Burrow-Chase combo was one of the most prolific offensive tandems in football. The 10-6 Bengals scratched and clawed their way through the playoffs, beating Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on the road to advance to Super Bowl LVI against the Los Angeles Rams.

The Bengals came up short of winning the Super Bowl that year, but it instilled confidence in “Joe Cool” and put the league on notice that Cincinnati would be heard from as long as everyone remained healthy. Burrow and the Bengals would make it back to the 2022 AFC Championship game in a rematch of the previous season’s, but Kansas City would get their revenge. Since then, the Bengals have not returned to the playoffs, with injuries to Burrow in 2023 and 2025 being a major factor. His last healthy season in 2024 was one for the books as well, leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns in the only season in which he did not miss a game. If Burrow is able to stay healthy and the Bengals are able to give him the offensive line to support him, the sky is the limit as to what he can accomplish in the league. 

Lows: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (2019)

Coming off the whiff of a draft pick in Josh Rosen the previous year, the Arizona Cardinals had sole possession of the crown jewel of the 2019 NFL Draft, Kyler Murray. At the NFL combine, Murray was measured at just over 5’10. This would make Murray one of the most unique quarterback prospects ever, with the current average height for an NFL quarterback being around 6’2. What earned Murray a Heisman Trophy at the University of Oklahoma and got the Cardinals to use the first overall pick on him was his ability as a runner. Murray had the physical ability to be electricity personified on a football field, along with a massive arm to match. Murray’s rookie season was pretty solid, winning offensive rookie of the year honors.

Looking to give their new franchise quarterback a boost and help turn around the 5-10-1 squad, the Cardinals traded for four-time All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins prior to the 2020 regular season. The next two seasons would be the best of Murray’s career, earning his only two Pro Bowl selections in both years. With the added boost of throwing to Hopkins, Murray still struggled to meet the expectations that come with being the top pick. In 2021, the Cardinals had their best season since 2015, going 11-6 and earning a playoff spot. In his sole postseason appearance, Murray did not play well, losing to the Los Angeles Rams by over 20 points and throwing for 137 yards, two interceptions, and zero touchdowns. 

That would be the peak of Murray’s time as a Cardinal, never again having a season with a win percentage above .500. In his final season, Murray suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his foot that would ultimately end his season after five games. With the team going backward and Murray in just year two of a 5-year, $230 million contract extension, the front office had decided to go in a different direction. Murray was released by the Arizona Cardinals in March 2026, with the team having to absorb a significant amount of money against the salary cap for the next few seasons. With his new landing spot with the Minnesota Vikings, Murray will have a fresh start and a chance to show whether he is one of the truly unique talents in NFL history, or just a short QB who will never be able to put it all together.

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (2023)

Putting Bryce Young with the Lows could end up backfiring, but right now, it’s the most fitting place for him. Even though Young was a Heisman Trophy winner at the University of Alabama, his size still gave experts pause as to whether or not someone of his stature could be a franchise quarterback. Unlike the previously mentioned Kyler Murray, Young did not possess the same ability to run the ball himself despite having the exact same measurements coming into the league. In college, Young relied on his anticipation and accuracy to win games. It didn’t take long for Young to look like a disaster of a pick. Starting 16 games for the Carolina Panthers, he had one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons ever, throwing 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Though his individual numbers look bad, they don’t do him justice as to how poor his play was on the field. He played all of the bad quarterback hits, scrambling out of clean pockets and making bad decisions. The most concerning would just be how he looked on the field. Surrounded by NFL linemen, Young looked young. He would even struggle to get the ball past the line of scrimmage, constantly throwing the ball into the helmets of his offensive linemen. The Carolina Panthers would go 2-14 in games started by Young in his rookie year, but because they traded their 2024 first-rounder to trade up and take him, the Panthers were left without another building block to strengthen the team. 

His second season began just as badly as his first, with Young getting benched for Andy Dalton by Week 3. Inexplicably, Dalton would suffer a sprained thumb in a car accident just five weeks later. With a second chance to save his career, Young showed a lot more of the talent that got him regarded so highly in the draft process, going 4-6 over the last 10 games of the season. His third season would build upon the first two even more, becoming more and more comfortable at the NFL level, throwing a career high 23 touchdowns in 16 games.

The Panthers’ play, or lack of in-division competition, would lead to them winning the NFC South with a record of 9-8 and hosting a playoff game in 2025. In his sole postseason performance, Young showed real promise, nearly beating the league MVP Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. If it wasn’t for Young’s pretty awful first 20 or so starts, a case could be made that he belongs in the notable’s category. With another year in an NFL offense and a front office that has invested in pass catchers and help for him, Bryce Young is a great candidate to make me eat crow sooner rather than later.

Notables: Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams (2016)

If you had said that Jared Goff would have a pretty successful NFL career during his rookie season, I wouldn’t have believed you. Taken out of Cal, Goff was two things: tall and accurate. That was about it. He struggled mightily in his rookie season, starting seven games and losing all of them. In the 2017 offseason, the Los Angeles Rams would hire 30-year-old offensive coordinator Sean McVay as head coach and never look back. McVay turned Goff into the best version of himself, creating one of the most prolific offenses of the decade in the 2017 and 2018 Rams. The 2018 Rams were a juggernaut, going 13-3 and rolling to Super Bowl LIII, but falling to the last-gasp New England Patriots of the Brady-Belichick era. 

Goff’s subpar Super Bowl performance clearly rattled McVay’s trust in him, with Goff being traded to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford just two years later. After initially struggling in Detroit as well, Goff found himself again as the 6’4 statue ripping balls over the middle for the resurgent Lions. Detroit would see themselves as the top seed in the NFC two years in a row, but back-to-back playoff failures from Goff and the team as a whole have sent them back to the drawing board. After missing the playoffs entirely in 2025, the 2026 season for the Detroit Lions needs to be a big year for them, or guys like Goff could see themselves shipped out once again for the next winning piece. 

Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns (2018)

If Baker Mayfield had one thing above all, it was swag. The trash-talking, big-armed, undersized sparkplug showed out at the University of Oklahoma. His fiery style of quarterbacking mixed perfectly with Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley’s offense, with Mayfield winning the Heisman Trophy in 2017. During the draft process, Mayfield slowly rose in the rankings, and by draft day, it was a foregone conclusion that he would go first to the Cleveland Browns. After sitting on the bench the first few games of the season, Mayfield got his chance coming in for an injured Tyrod Taylor and balled out, coming back down 14-0 and breaking the nineteen-game winless streak for the franchise.

Going 6-7 in the 13 starts during his rookie year, Mayfield had the chance to be the Browns franchise quarterback they haven’t had since the days of Otto Graham (yes, it is that dire for them). His second year would be disappointing, going 6-10 while playing through multiple injuries mid-season. The 2020 Browns would be the best team Cleveland would put on the field in nearly two decades, giving them their first playoff berth since 2002. Winning on the road in Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round without head coach Kevin Stefanski was no small feat, as it was the first playoff win for the team since Bill Bellicheck was the coach in 1994. A regression the following year did not give the Browns’ front office enough confidence to keep Mayfield on the roster, leading to his release during the 2022 offseason. 

The 2022 season would be a whirlwind for Mayfield. Starting the year with the Carolina Panthers, he would lose his starting spot to Sam Darnold and be unceremoniously cut mid-season to end up on the Los Angeles Rams for the remainder of the year. His play for the Rams gave him, and teams hope that he was still a starting quarterback, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers giving him a one-year “prove it” deal the next year. It would be in Tampa that Mayfield would have the best years of his career, clinching playoff berths and his first Pro Bowl selections in back-to-back years. With the Buccaneers giving him a 3-year, $100 extension, Florida seems to be a new home for him. Baker Mayfield is still a net positive for an offense going into 2026. Surrounded by young offensive talent in central Florida would be a nice spot for most of the QBs in the league. It could be worse, like playing Cleveland or something, but he would never do that.

 Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (2024)

When Caleb Williams is clicking, his talent is awe-inspiring to watch. Of course, another Heisman Trophy winner, Williams, being considered one of the most talented prospects of the decade, wasn’t that much of a stretch. His ability to make throws moving to either side of the field with pinpoint accuracy intoxicated the Chicago Bears to take him with the number one pick. Williams had an extremely polarizing rookie season, as he was the epitome of feast-or-famine. Either he would roll out of the pocket and hit a receiver in stride for a 30-yard gain, or he would send a 5-yard hitch route straight into the dirt. Williams had a real problem with doing the easy things as a quarterback.

His second season would have him take a major leap over his first, with new head coach Ben Johnson scheming an offense that helped Caleb Williams corral many of his faults and turn them into positive plays. The Chicago Bears would go 11-6 in Williams’ second season, but a late-season inter-divisional matchup against the Green Bay Packers would be where Williams became “The Iceman,” throwing the game-winning touchdown in overtime to win the NFC North outright and host a playoff game for the first time since 2018. Williams’ magic would run out in the Wild Card round, falling to the Los Angeles Rams. With just two seasons under his belt, Williams looks to be figuring it out at the NFL level, with real improvement in decision-making being his biggest hurdle. If year three builds upon the first two, the hierarchy of elite quarterbacks could be in danger of a shakeup.

With all of the parts completed, let’s take a look at the data. On a per-pick basis and the total combined score, here is where the final rankings lie.

1st: 5th pick; total of 108.9; 10.89 per player

2nd: 1st pick; total of 104.5; 10.45 per player

3rd: 3rd pick; total of 82.5; 8.25 per player

4th: 2nd pick; total of 77; 7.7 per player

5th: 4th pick; total of 74.3; 7.43 per player

The final numbers here should be taken with a couple of grains of salt. Many times, one or two players would make up the majority of the picks’ total score, with players like Myles Garrett taking up nearly half of the points scored for first overall picks. At the end of the day, this project was done to contextualize the NFL draft in literal terms based on results. Believing whoever you’re going to take at the first pick is going to revolutionize your franchise is not favorable when you look at it through the scope of recent history.

Evaluating talent is one of the hardest skills in sports, but taking the de facto number one pick because it’s common practice isn’t always the best return on investment. Think outside the box a little; something like the fifth pick could easily bring you closer to contending than most of these top picks ever could; it’s not like the historical data proves otherwise.

The Mendoza Factor: Is he the Exception?

As the Las Vegas Raiders prepare to turn in the card for Fernando Mendoza, they face the ultimate historical crossroads. Our data shows that while the #1 pick ranks 2nd in overall value, the “Heisman-to-NFL” pipeline is a coin flip. For every Joe Burrow, there is a Bryce Young or a Kyler Murray. For the Raiders to see a return on their investment, Mendoza doesn’t just need to be “good”—he needs to reach the “Elite” accolade tier (Score: 10+) to justify passing on the historical stability found at the 5th pick.

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-Julian Winters for Franchise Sports Media

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