Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 3: The 3rd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 3: The 3rd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

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When asking if the #1 pick in the NFL draft is worth it, we have to look at the surrounding value in that particular class. The 2026 NFL Draft looks to shape up narratively with previous years, as Indiana quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to be taken first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.  Our series proceeds in ascending order, with the third installment focused on the third pick.

Take a look at Part One of this series for the point system and my introduction:

Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 1: The 5th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

(Link to Part 2)  Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 2: The 4th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Notable 3rd Overall Picks in The NFL Draft

There is something significant about third place; you even get a medal for it in the Olympics. Being a top-three pick in a draft is not something to sneeze at. When looking back at the third overall picks since 2016, what stood out the most was the number of teams that had multiple swings at the same pick. The New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, and the Houston Texans all took players third overall twice in the last decade, with each team seeing varying results from those picks’ productivity.

Highs: Quinnen Williams, DT, New York Jets (2019), Derek Stingley, CB, Houston Texans (2022), Will Anderson Jr., OLB (2023)

Anyone who knows anything about college football knows that the University of Alabama is a juggernaut when it comes to producing elite NFL talent. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is another one of those elite talents. Taken third overall by the New York Jets in the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams has been nothing short of an excellent run stopper in the NFL, becoming one of the highest graded defensive tackles in football. His 2022 season was his best, racking up 12 sacks and earning his first career First-Team All-Pro selection, along with his first Pro Bowl. His breakout season earned him a four-year, $96 million extension with the Jets, at the time the largest deal for a defensive tackle in the NFL.

Though his sack numbers have not rivaled his 2022 season, Williams has continued to produce at a high level, making the Pro Bowl in every season since. Right before the 2025 trade deadline, the Dallas Cowboys made a blockbuster deal for Williams, sending a 2026 second-round pick and a 2027 first-round pick back to New York. This comes just over two months after the Cowboys traded All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers amid a very public contract dispute, and they quickly saw their defense crater into one of the league’s worst. A year removed from a defensive disaster in Dallas, perhaps Williams is a step in the right direction to making the Cowboys contenders once again.

In back-to-back seasons, the Houston Texans hit two home runs with the third overall pick. The 2022 NFL draft brought them Derek Stingley Jr., the cornerback from LSU, and the 2023 NFL Draft brought them Will Anderson Jr., the edge rusher out of Alabama. 

In four seasons, Derek Stingley Jr. has become one of the standout cornerbacks in the NFL. Coming into the draft, Stingley Jr. did not participate in any pre-draft workouts as he was still recovering from a Lisfranc fracture in his foot. Despite that, there wasn’t a doubt in NFL scouts’ minds that he would be worthy to be taken number three. He excelled in his rookie season until it was cut short halfway through due to a hamstring strain and an ankle sprain. His second would have him build upon his first.

Even though he only played two more games, his interception total jumped from 1 to 5, and his passes defended jumped from 5 to 13. His 2024 and 2025 seasons would serve as his coming-out party. In both seasons, Stingley Jr. held down the outside for an elite Houston Texans defense, earning First Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors in both seasons while also never missing a game in the process.

The Texans were the real winners of the 2023 NFL Draft. Not only did they take quarterback C.J. Stroud second overall, but they also quickly traded with the Arizona Cardinals to acquire Will Anderson Jr. with the third overall pick. The edge rusher from Alabama hit the ground running in the NFL, earning a Pro Bowl selection and winning defensive rookie of the year in his inaugural season. Though his sack numbers increased the following season, Anderson Jr. did not make the Pro Bowl, which so far is the only year in which he hasn’t.

His 2025 season would be his best, returning once again to the Pro Bowl, but also earning his first-ever All-Pro First Team selection. Anderson Jr. also finished second in defensive player of the year voting, losing to Cleveland Browns’ defensive end Myles Garrett and his record-breaking 23 sack season. Nevertheless, Anderson Jr. was just awarded the richest non-QB contract in NFL history, a whopping $150 million over three years. Defensively, the future is extremely bright in Houston, with Stingley Jr. and Anderson Jr. shaping up to be two of the best defenders in the NFL for the foreseeable future. 

Lows: Solomon Thomas DT San Francsico 49ers (2017), Jeff Okudah CB Detroit Lions (2020), Trey Lance QB San Francisco 49ers (2021)

The most intriguing part of Solomon Thomas’ career would have to do with how he was drafted in the first place. The San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears shocked the NFL world by swapping the second and third picks during the draft, with the Bears moving up one spot to take quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (spoiler alert for next week’s piece) and the 49ers taking who they wanted all along in defensive tackle Solomon Thomas.

A year removed from the Colin Kaepernick era in San Francisco, the team was in the midst of a full-blown rebuild. Since 2015, the team has spent five first-round draft picks on the defensive line, with Thomas being the third one in four years. In comparison to the others, Solomon Thomas would be the least productive of all of them. Playing in 30 games in his first two seasons, Thomas tallied just four sacks. In 2019, the team had clearly given up on him, starting just 3 games despite playing all 16 regular-season games. A torn ACL just two games into the 2020 season would put an end to his career in San Francisco, but Thomas has still been able to stick around in the NFL since.

He’s never missed more than a game since his ACL injury and even put up a decent 5 sack season in 2023 for the New York Jets. In 2025, Thomas signed a two-year contract with the Dallas Cowboys but was traded to the Tennessee Titans in the 2026 offseason, reuniting him with head coach Robert Salah, who was his defensive coordinator in San Francisco and head coach during his tenure on the New York Jets. Thomas has carved out a solid career as a rotational lineman, but as the third pick, it didn’t work out.

Historically, the Detroit Lions are one of the most underachieving franchises in professional sports. In their 60-year history, they have never reached a single Super Bowl.

By the 2020 draft, the conjecture around the Detroit Lions was more of the same. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was one of the few reasons why the team hadn’t fallen off a complete cliff during the 2010s, but with him missing half of the 2019 season, the team imploded and was left with the third pick as a consolation prize. The Lions’ defense was abysmal in 2019, ranking 31st out of 32 teams in opposing yards gained and tied for last in interceptions.

With the third pick in the 2020 draft, the Detroit Lions drafted cornerback Jeff Okudah to bolster the reeling defense. His rookie season was plagued by injuries, during which he missed 7 games with various ailments. Looking to bounce back the following year, Okudah suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in the first game of the season, ending it before it could even start. His 2023 season would be his best, mostly due to the fact that it’s been the only healthy season of his career so far, playing and starting 15 games for the Lions.

This would be his final season in Detroit, as he was traded to the Atlanta Falcons for a fifth-round pick prior to the 2023 NFL Draft. Okudah has struggled mightily to find solid ground in the NFL, with injuries playing a major role in his suiting up for four teams in four years. A checkered injury history has left Okudah a free agent as of April 2026.

The amount of risk that came with drafting Trey Lance was huge. For the San Francisco 49ers, trading three first-round picks to move up to third in the draft and take him just compounded that risk even more.

Coming out of North Dakota State University, Trey Lance looked the part of a star quarterback, standing nearly 6’4 with decent arm talent and all of the athletic traits you’d dream of a young player having. Though good on paper, his path to the NFL is eerily similar to last week’s mention of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Lance had barely played in college before being drafted, with 19 total appearances and only one full season as a starter. Granted, he was stellar in his 2019 redshirt season, sporting a 30:1 touchdown to interception ratio and going a perfect 16-0 to lead the Bison to an FCS championship. Whoever drafted him knew that he was very “raw” as a prospect, needing time to develop into an NFL-caliber starter.

At the time, you can see how the 49ers were able to talk themselves into the whole ordeal. Two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance in which quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo came up short and an injury-ridden 2020 season, San Francisco felt there was room for improvement and thus gambled their short-term future in the draft to make it happen. Lance would play sparingly in his rookie season, with Garoppolo still retaining the first-string duties.

2022 would be when the team would give Lance the full reins of the offense, but it would be over as soon as it started, with him suffering a season-ending broken ankle in Week 2. Garoppolo took over once again until he himself suffered a season-ending injury, clearing the way for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who hasn’t looked back since. The following offseason would be one of massive change for the team. With the emergence of Purdy as the clear-cut starter, Lance’s opportunity to play for the team was all but gone. With no room for him to play, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick and has been a backup in the NFL since.

Even though he’s only 26 years old, it’s doubtful that Trey Lance will get a chance to compete for a starting job anytime soon. Currently serving as a backup on the Los Angeles Chargers, Lance’s story will most likely fade into obscure NFL trivia, as his career has become one of a cautionary tale for overevaluating quarterbacks and the damage a mistake like that could cause a franchise. The San Francisco 49ers are very lucky to have Brock Purdy, as without him, the Lance deal on draft day could have crippled the team for years.

Notables: Joey Bosa DE San Diego Chargers (2016), Sam Darnold QB New York Jets (2018), Drake Maye QB New England Patriots (2024)

Joey Bosa on the field is exactly the player the San Diego Chargers thought they were getting. The only problem with that is he isn’t on the field as much as you’d like. His rookie season was indicative of his Chargers tenure, as he won defensive rookie of the year while playing only 12 games. In every year he played 12 or more games, Bosa was selected to the Pro Bowl. However, the first half and second half of his career so far do have a demarcation point. In 2021, Bosa led his team in sacks with 10.5, but that would be the last time he would have more than 6.5 in a season.

In 2025, Bosa signed a one-year deal with the Buffalo Bills and still showed that he can contribute to a contending team at a high level, starting 15 games and ending the season in a three-way tie for second in the NFL in forced fumbles (5). As of April 2026, Bosa is still unsigned by an NFL team. It would be preemptive to say that his professional career is over, but the days of him as a highly touted edge rusher are in his rear view.

For a majority of his career, Sam Darnold was widely considered a bust in the NFL. He very clearly showed NFL arm talent, but his decision-making was his biggest hindrance.

In his first NFL start, Sam Darnold threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown on his first attempt, an omen for how the rest of his New York Jets tenure would play out. The most damning moment in his league-wide perception was a Monday Night Football game against the New England Patriots, when he was caught on camera saying he was “seeing ghosts”. Darnold wouldn’t have his fifth-year option picked up by New York and signed a one-year deal with the Carolina Panthers, where he played pretty well, but ultimately came up short in the final game of the season to win the division and make the playoffs. 

By then, it seemed like Darnold would have a journeyman sort of career, bouncing around as a backup for multiple teams until he got another opportunity to start for the Minnesota Vikings. He led the Vikings to a 14-3 record and a playoff berth in 2024, but turned into a pumpkin once again in the final game of the season against the Detroit Lions for the number one overall seed in the NFC, and the subsequent week in the Wild Card game against the Los Angeles Rams.

His stellar regular-season performance led him to sign a three-year, $100 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks. In his first year with Seattle, Darnold went 14-3 again but kept his foot on the gas, getting the number one overall seed in the NFC and winning Super Bowl LX in dominant fashion. If Darnold’s career had been as successful as his last two seasons, there’s no doubt he’d be one of the signature quarterbacks in the NFL. Now, only time will tell if he ever regresses to what he once was. 

If you go back to the first part of this series, I mentioned that the 2024 and 2025 drafts wouldn’t be focused on too much, but Drake Maye has already accomplished more than most of the other quarterbacks that will be mentioned.

When Maye was taken third overall by the New England Patriots in the 2024 NFL Draft, it was clear that the franchise had finally found someone they felt comfortable with filling the massive shoes of future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. There couldn’t be a bigger dichotomy between his first and second seasons. Maye’s rookie year was one to forget, with head coach and former Patriot linebacker Jerod Mayo being fired after one season and the team finishing last in their division with a record of 4-13.

The 2025 offseason would see the team undergo a complete overhaul, with head coach Mike Vrabel, star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and multiple day-one starters bolstering the already solid defense. The 2025 season for Maye (and the Patriots) could not have gone better. Not only did the team completely flip their record from the previous year, going 14-3, but they also won the AFC East division title for the first time since 2019.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the 2025 Patriots were fool’s gold; however, the team went 1-2 against teams with winning records. Even with the narrative that he never played any good teams, Maye would go on to have a fantastic sophomore season himself, finishing second in MVP voting, earning All-Pro Second Team honors, and leading the league in completion percentage and passer rating.

It wouldn’t be until the playoffs that Maye would begin to stumble. Despite winning three straight playoff games and reaching Super Bowl LX, Maye was massively underwhelming in his playoff performances, setting the all-time record for fumbles and sacks in a single postseason. Clearly, it’s still too early to say whether or not his second season was a flash in the pan or indicative of what’s to come. If he really is the guy from the 2025 regular season, the New England Patriots could terrorize the NFL for over a decade once again.

The 2026 Raiders Dilemma: Is #1 More Certain than #3?

As the Las Vegas Raiders sit in the driver’s seat of the 2026 NFL Draft, the shadow of Fernando Mendoza looms large. However, our analysis of the 3rd overall pick presents a compelling “Plan B” for the Silver and Black. While the #1 pick is often a gamble on a “savior” quarterback, history shows that the 3rd pick is where defensive cornerstones like Quinnen Williams and Will Anderson Jr. are found.

If the Raiders were to trade down from the top spot, they would be moving into a “High-Value Zone” that historically yields elite defensive anchors—something the Las Vegas defense would love to pair with Maxx Crosby For a team needing to maximize every asset, the historical stability of the 3rd pick suggests that “worth it” might not always mean “first overall.”

Scoring-wise, the third pick had the most parity among the chosen players. Since 2016, four of the players taken have a personal score of 15, each with a different combination of accolades. The total score for the third overall pick is 82.5, with an average per-player score of 8.25. This is a massive jump from part two. As for whether or not the scores will increase, decrease, or stay the same, you’ll have to wait for part four.

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