Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 2: The 4th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 2: The 4th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

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When asking if the #1 pick in the NFL draft is worth it, we have to look at the surrounding value in that particular class. The 2026 NFL Draft looks to shape up narratively with previous years, as Indiana quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to be taken first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.  Our series proceeds in ascending order, with the second installment focused on the fourth pick.

Take a look at Part One of this series for the point system and my introduction:

Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 1: The 5th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Notable 4th Overall Picks in The NFL Draft

The drafting in sports is far from a science. It’s just as easy to take a future Hall of Famer as it is to get someone who won’t make it to their second contract. The last decade of fourth overall picks yielded some interesting results, but did not have the same type of top-end talent that the fifth picks had. Let’s take a look at some of the notables at number four. 

Highs: Sauce Gardner, CB New York Jets (2022), Denzel Ward, CB Cleveland Browns

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner is just about everything you’d want in a top pick. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Gardner was named First Team All-Pro both years. Since the NFL-AFL merger (1970), the only defenders to accomplish such a feat are Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor and Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons. Since the storybook start of his career, Gardner has stumbled slightly. He had a down year in 2024 and was then traded to the Indianapolis Colts at the 2025 trade deadline, in what appeared at the time to be a win-now move for the franchise. In his first game as a Colt, Gardner suffered a calf strain and subsequently missed the rest of the season. The 2026 season looks to be massive not only for the Colts but also for Gardner himself. The team gave away two first-round picks for him, a price that hasn’t been paid for a cornerback since Darrelle Revis was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a first-round pick in 2013. 

Denzel Ward is an interesting case. Though he hasn’t hit the highs of players like Jalen Ramsey or Stephon Gilmore, Ward is still a very good cornerback. The five time pro bowler has been one of the few players on the Cleveland Browns who have been able to elevate above the franchise’s incompetence. In 2022, Ward and the Browns agreed on a five-year, $100 million extension that made him the highest-paid defensive back in team history. With the two defensive cornerstones in Ward, Myles Garrett (wait until the number one picks piece!), and 2025 all-rookie selection Mason Graham, the 2026 Browns still look years away from contention with seemingly every other team in their division having a significant leg up on them. As for whether or not Ward will still be there by the time that happens, we will have to wait and see.

Lows: Clelin Ferrell, DE Oakland Raiders (2019), Anthony Richardson, QB Indianapolis Colts (2023)

A year removed from trading former defensive player of the year Khalil Mack, the Oakland Raiders had a clear hole to fill on the defensive side of the ball. Drafting Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell looked to be the answer at the time. As always, the drama of the Raiders’ franchise was apparent, as the trade for superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown led to his release two days before the start of the season.

Looking back, this was an indicator of the front office’s decision-making at the time. Ferrell simply didn’t pan out. The edge rusher tallied a career high of 4.5 sacks in his rookie year and has yet to surpass that total in a season. His fifth-year option was not picked up by the Raiders, and he subsequently signed with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023, where he started every game. Since then, he’s bounced around multiple teams and practice squads, becoming a rotational lineman in the NFL. A far cry from what they thought could be the replacement for the now nine time pro bowler in Mack.

At the University of Florida, Anthony Richardson had only 13 starts, which amounts to about a season’s worth of collegiate games. Measuring up to 6 ‘4, 244 pounds, a 40-yard dash time of 4.43 seconds, and an explosive arm, Richardson physically was like Skynet had sent Terminator back in time to play quarterback. Pre-draft comparisons were off the charts for him with former NFL MVP Cam Newton being his biggest comparison, though the fact that Newton won the Heisman Trophy and carried Auburn University to a national championship by himself was always left out, but I digress.

Since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement in 2019, the Indianapolis Colts had been rudderless at quarterback, so it was no surprise that they were able to talk themselves into taking Richardson fourth overall in 2023. His rookie season in 2023 was cut short after just four games due to season-ending shoulder surgery, but the franchise still remained hopeful that he could become the guy they thought so highly of. The following season was everything the Colts team, front office, and fans didn’t want.

Richardson showed decent potential, with his athleticism doing much of the heavy lifting. He completed just 47% of his passes in the 2024-25 season, ranking 33rd of 40 qualified players, and threw more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (8). The team brought in Daniel Jones, who served as a backup for the Minnesota Vikings the previous year, to compete for the starting job in 2025, which he won almost immediately. If that wasn’t damning enough, the Indianapolis Colts started the season 8-1 with Jones being a fringe MVP candidate until he got hurt midway through. With Jones resigning with the Colts for the next few seasons, Richardson’s future as a starter relies on whether or not anyone will give him another chance.

Notable Names: Ezekiel Elliot, RB Dallas Cowboys (2016), Kyle Pitts, TE Atlanta Falcons (2021)

A year removed from a dominant performance in the inaugural College Football Playoff Championship game, Ezekiel Elliot was slated to be the next star running back in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys hadn’t had a top-five pick since 2003, which placed a lot of pressure on the front office to nail the fourth pick in the 2016 draft. Elliot hit the ground running in his rookie season, leading the league in rushing and earning First Team All-Pro honors, along with winning offensive rookie of the year. A suspension for domestic violence in his sophomore season caused him to miss six games, but he bounced back hard in 2018, leading the league in rushing again and landing on Second Team All-Pro.

His 2019 season was another strong one, finishing fourth in rushing and earning his third Pro Bowl appearance. That would be the last time that Elliot would be considered a top-end talent in the NFL. Elliot left Dallas and joined the New England Patriots in 2023 before returning to Dallas the following year. After only starting two games, Elliot fell in the backfield rotation over the course of the season and requested his release from the team with a week left in the regular season. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for him, as his yards per game declined in every season of his career since he was drafted. By the age of 29, Ezekiel Elliot was out of the NFL and has not returned.

When Kyle Pitts was drafted fourth in 2021, he made history as the highest tight end taken in NFL draft history, with Kellen Winslow (2004) and Vernon Davis (2006) previously sharing the record at sixth overall. Coming out of the University of Florida, Pitts looked like a lock to be a dominant force on offense. Initially, it looked like Atlanta had nailed the pick, with Pitts becoming the second rookie tight end ever to surpass 1,000 receiving yards. The next few seasons would be massively disappointing for him, given his solid rookie season and draft hype. He failed to break 700 yards in each season, and confidence in him as a can’t-miss prospect dwindled week to week.

2025 would see that narrative shift, as the Atlanta Falcons made him much more of a focal point in the offense this past season, leading the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Pitts put together the best season of his career, earning his first-ever Second-Team All-Pro selection. Next season serves as a massive fork in the road for Pitts. Will he continue to produce as he did in 2021 and 2025, or will he go back to being the pedestrian pass catcher he was for the years in between?

Now for the scoring portion of the series. I was pretty shocked to see the lack of accolades and scoring among fourth-overall picks. In total, the fourth pick had a combined score of 59.5, with an average score of 7.43. Next week will be all about the third overall pick and their selections. Not to spoil anything, but I wouldn’t say it gets too much better.

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-Julian Winters for Franchise Sports Media

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