Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 4: The 2nd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 4: The 2nd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

www.FranchiseSportsMedia.com

When asking if the #1 pick in the NFL draft is worth it, we have to look at the surrounding value in that particular class. The 2026 NFL Draft looks to shape up narratively with previous years, as Indiana quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to be taken first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.  Our series proceeds in ascending order, with the third installment focused on the third pick.

Take a look at Part One of this series for the point system and my introduction:

Is the #1 Pick in The NFL Draft Worth it? Part 1: The 5th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

(Link to Part 2)  Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 2: The 4th Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

(Link to Part 3) Is the #1 Pick in the NFL Draft Worth it? Part 3: The 3rd Overall Pick (2026 Guide)

Notable 2nd Overall Picks in The NFL Draft

In most years, the difference between the first and second overall picks depends heavily on what the team with the first pick needs, leaving the owner of the second pick having to be the first to react to the pick ahead of them. Let’s say the Las Vegas Raiders traded down to the second pick instead of keeping the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Would they benefit in the long run? Or would it be in their best interest to keep the top spot and surely draft Fernando Mendoza? Let’s look at the history of the second pick and get a sense of who the Raiders may be missing out on.

Highs: Saquon Barkley, RB New York Giants (2018), Nick Bosa DE San Francisco 49ers (2019), Aiden Hutchinson DE Detroit Lions (2022)

Saquon Barkley at Penn State is the greatest college running back I have ever seen in my life. Joining running backs Reggie Bush (2006) and Ronnie Brown (2005) as the only running backs to be taken second or higher this century, the Barkley hype was out of this world. His rookie year had him leading the NFL in scrimmage yards, becoming one of three rookies to ever reach 2000 or more yards in a season. Locking up offensive rookie of the year and his first Pro Bowl, Barkley, as a weapon out of the backfield, was just as good as advertised.

Even with talent and physical ability popping off the screen every time he played, Barkley’s time with the New York Giants did not lead to a lot of success on the field. Drafting a running back as high as Barkley is incredibly risky, as without a proper offensive line, you’re setting a young player up for failure. The Giants had a bottom-half pass and win run block rate for the entirety of Barkley’s tenure with the team.

Two shining examples are Ezekiel Elliot and Ashton Jeanty. When Elliot was taken fourth overall by the Dallas Cowboys in 2016, he was placed behind one of the best offensive lines in football. As mentioned in part 2, Elliot led the league in rushing his rookie year. When the Las Vegas Raiders took Ashton Jeanty sixth overall in 2025, it was nearly impossible for him to get a rhythm week to week, as he was last among starting running backs in rushing yards before contact during the 2025 season.

Since 2017, the Giants have finished above .500 only once, going 9-7 in 2022. In what looked like a fluke playoff appearance that season actually showed promise, upsetting the NFC North champion Minnesota Vikings at home in gritty fashion.  Upon becoming a free agent in 2024, Saquon Barkley would be one of the most sought-after free agents in years. The Barkley sweepstakes would be over fairly quickly, as he would go on to sign a three-year, $37.75 million deal with the divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles.

Behind what was considered the best offensive line in football, his first year in Philadelphia would be one of the best in NFL history. Leading the league in rushing and scrimmage yards while also breaking Hall of Fame running back Terrell Davis’ single-season combined rushing record were just a few of the milestones Barkley achieved in 2024. He also earned his first career First Team All-Pro selection, was named offensive player of the year, and won Super Bowl LIX. The 2025 season was a step back for the Eagles’ offense as a whole, with frustration for quarterback Jalen Hurts and the coaching staff contributing to the team’s disappointing title defense.

Much like his older brother Joey, Nick Bosa is a force to be reckoned with… when healthy. Bosa was stellar in his rookie season, leading the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers with 9.5 sacks and winning defensive rookie of the year.

The 2020 season for Bosa would go exactly as it did for last week’s Solomon Thomas, a torn ACL in Week 2. The next four seasons for Bosa would be unbelievable to say the least. Not only did he make the Pro Bowl every year from 2021 to 2024, but he also had an all-time year in 2022, leading the league in sacks with 18.5 and winning defensive player of the year, along with his first career First Team All-Pro selection. Bosa would be the first 49er to win the award since Deion Sanders’ and Dana Stubblefield’s wins in 1994 and 1995.

In 2025, Bosa would start to show real cracks in his seemingly impenetrable armor, tearing the ACL in his left knee for the second time in his career. Two season-ending injuries in the same knee are enough to give any team cause for concern, but with Bosa under contract for at least the next two seasons and owed over $32 million per year, bouncing back to his old self would benefit all parties involved.

Aiden Hutchinson is perhaps the biggest flier taken on this list.

In four seasons, Hutchinson has separated himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. In his rookie season, Hutchinson performed well for the Detroit Lions, tallying 9.5 sacks while starting all 17 games for the team. His second year would also see improvement, with his overall sack numbers jumping up to 11.5 on the year, landing him in the top ten in the league and earning him his first Pro Bowl selection. Five games into year three with 7.5 sacks would have Hutchinson on pace to have a career year, but a fractured tibia and fibula in his left ankle would stop him in his tracks.

As disappointing as the injury would be for him and the team, Hutchinson attacked rehab as hard as anyone could, with the potential to return as early as the Super Bowl should the team get there. The 2025 season for the Lions would be disappointing, but in his first full season back, Hutchinson looked even better than he had before. With a career high of 14.5 sacks, his first Second Team All-Pro selection, and his second Pro Bowl, the trajectory is through the roof. If his prior seasons are any indication, I would expect Hutchinson to have a career year once again in 2026.

Lows: Carson Wentz, QB Philadelphia Eagles (2016), Mitchell Trubisky QB Chicago Bears (2018), Zach Wilson QB New York Jets (2021)

Carson Wentz tearing his ACL diving for a touchdown that was called back is a very good encapsulation of his career. At the time of his injury, the Philadelphia Eagles were 10-2 and cruising to the number one seed in the NFC with Wentz squarely in the driver’s seat to take home league MVP. Initially, all looked lost for Philadelphia in the wake of Wentz’s injury, but backup quarterback Nick Foles stepped up and heroically led the team to its first-ever championship in Super Bowl LII while also winning Super Bowl MVP himself. The city rallied behind Foles in a remarkable way, with a statue of Foles erected outside the Eagles’ stadium, and then head coach Doug Pederson calling the famous “Philly Special” play in the Super Bowl.

From then on, Wentz never quite fit in Philly. He never played as well as he did in 2017 again, with erratic decision-making on the football field and a long list of injuries being his downfall as a starting quarterback. His biggest fault was always trying to be a hero. Lofting balls into double coverage and scrambling out of clean pockets would get him into more trouble than he was in to begin with, an issue he still deals with to this day. His final year as an Eagle would be the 2020 season, where he would lead the league in interceptions with 15 and sacks with 50.

In 2021, the Indianapolis Colts brought in Wentz to hopefully right the ship that had been off course for many years since Andrew Luck. The Colts’ experiment crashed and burned in the final week of the season, losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars and blowing their chance of making the postseason. Since then, Wentz has been a backup in the NFL, playing for four different teams in the last four years.

The Chicago Bears have been a football organization since 1922. To this day, not a single quarterback has passed for over 4000 yards in a season.

When Chicago traded up in the 2017 draft to take Mitchell Trubisky, the writing on the wall for the elusive 4000-yard benchmark seemed imminent. His rookie year did not instill much confidence in Bears fans, as he went 4-8 in 12 starts and threw as many touchdowns as interceptions, seven each. His 2018 season would be his career best by far, going 11-3 in 14 starts, winning the NFC North for the first time since 2010, and going to the only Pro Bowl of his career. His sophomore campaign came to an end in the Wild Card round that year, losing the infamous “Double Doink” game at home against Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Trubisky’s career record in Chicago was actually decent, winning 73% of his starts. His win percentage would be the only major takeaway during his Bears tenure. His 2020 season would be his last in Chicago as the team decided to take another swing at the quarterback position with Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Trubisky has still remained in the NFL, serving as a backup for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and is currently backing up Josh Allen on the Buffalo Bills.

When a young quarterback is drafted, whether the team can surround him with the infrastructure needed to succeed is far more important than whether he can play. With Zach Wilson, neither one came to fruition.

Drafted out of BYU, Wilson wowed scouts with a massive arm and athleticism that looked to translate well at the professional level. It was clear early on as a rookie that Wilson had a lot of work to do in order to stay relevant in the NFL. Missing open receivers, running out of clean pockets, and turning the ball over at inopportune times, Wilson was the definition of a draft bust. In his defense, the team did not do him many favors, with the young quarterback noticeably lacking an above-average offensive line, pass catchers, and play-calling.

After two seasons, the New York Jets decided to go all in at the quarterback position, trading for future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Just four plays into Rodgers’ debut, he would suffer a torn Achilles, ending his season prematurely and forcing Wilson to assume the starting quarterback duties once again. As Rodgers was rehabbing for the 2024 season and beyond, it was clear that Wilson was playing on borrowed time.

In the 2024 offseason, Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos and never appeared for the team, assuming third-string responsibilities after losing out on the backup position in training camp. He’s bounced around a few times since then, playing for the Miami Dolphins during the 2025 season and then being picked up by the New Orleans Saints for the 2026 season. Zach Wilson is everything you don’t want in a top pick. His not working out in the Big Apple isn’t anything new for Jets fans, as they have not been able to figure out a long-term solution at quarterback since Joe “Broadway Joe” Namath brought them their only Super Bowl all the way back in 1968.

Notables: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (2023), Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (2024)

At first glance, the inclusion of C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels in the notables category could seem a bit pessimistic. Frankly, it isn’t strongly indicative of either one’s play on the field, but an appeal to the reality of how neither has hit the highs of the ones already mentioned earlier. Though they are different players with different playstyles, both have had very similar circumstances in the NFL. Merely being mentioned in the article already has them both as number-two picks, but both were the second quarterback taken in their respective drafts. Both were pro bowlers in their rookie seasons, along with taking home offensive rookie of the year honors, and the two of them won playoff games in their rookie seasons. This is where the similarities would part.

Starting with C.J. Stroud, his play has plateaued since his hot start as a rookie. Despite making the playoffs in every season of his career so far, I wouldn’t say that he has played up to the level that he was perceived to be at as a rookie. Stroud’s regular-season numbers have begun to slightly regress year to year, with his passing yards, passing yards per game, and touchdown passes taking a dip every year since he’s been in the league. Quarterbacks in the playoffs are worth their weight in gold, and Stroud has already become a perennial playoff quarterback, winning a playoff game in each of his first three seasons.

With his receivers and playcallers constantly being rotated out due to different opportunities and injuries, it’s hard to say exactly where the Houston Texans will end up with Stroud under center. Houston already has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The question now is, will the offense ever click again at a high enough level to turn both sides of the ball into contenders?

Jayden Daniels has only been in the NFL for two seasons and has already shown superstar potential.

After winning the Heisman Trophy at LSU, Daniels had all the makings of the next dual-threat superstar in the NFL. His explosive running ability was something to behold, but concerns about his decision-making and his ability to protect himself when running in the open field were real. Daniels expelled these notions pretty quickly, leading the Washington Commanders to a 12-5 record and a Wild Card playoff berth in his rookie season. Not only would Daniels excel in his first-ever playoff start on the road in Tampa, but he would shock the NFL world the following week by walking into Ford Field and playing near-perfect football against the top-seeded Detroit Lions.

His 2024 season was wildly impressive, becoming the sixth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game since the merger. His 2025 season would end up pretty disappointing due to injuries. Hamstring and ankle trouble, compounded with a dislocated elbow in Week 9, limited him to just seven games in his second season. With Washington planning to play in a new state-of-the-art stadium in Washington, D.C. in 2030, a contending team with a franchise quarterback is the best way to get butts in seats.

The 2nd Pick: A Raiders Safety Net?

If the Las Vegas Raiders were to move back just one spot from #1 to #2, history suggests they would be entering the most volatile “Boom or Bust” zone in the draft. While the 2nd pick has yielded generational talents like Nick Bosa and C.J. Stroud, it is also littered with cautionary tales like Zach Wilson.

For a Raiders team desperate for a franchise cornerstone, the 2nd pick offers a high-ceiling alternative if a team offers a king’s ransom for the right to draft Fernando Mendoza. However, with a lower average value score (7.7) than the 1st or 5th picks, moving to #2 requires absolute certainty in the “Plan B” prospect.

Surprisingly enough, the second overall pick has been the second-lowest by a slight margin, with a total score of 77 and an average score of 7.7. The top-end talent (Barkley and Bosa) do a majority of the heavy lifting for the second pick, with no other player breaking an individual score of 10. The last piece will be all about the first overall picks taken. Will the Las Vegas Raiders have the luxury of drafting the best average talent with the top pick? Or are they just as likely to get a difference maker elsewhere in the top five? Stay tuned for part five.

Franchise Sports Media. Las Vegas sports news about Las Vegas Sports teams.

-Julian Winters for Franchise Sports Media

Follow Julian on X at: @JulianWinterz

Follow The Franchise on social media